Office probabilities for parties and governments (v. 1.0)

These datasets contain estimates of the probability that a certain party or incumbent government enters government office after the next election.  The estimation approach is described in Cronert & Nyman (2021) in Political Analysis. Please see the article (open access) for more information, and please cite it if you make use of the data.

Cross-national data

Includes 420 governments and 2,900 party-election observations from 34 countries, 1950–2019. Contains one estimate based on the results from the previous election, and another one that also integrates vote intention polls from the 365 final days before the election.

Incumbent government re-election probabilities (IRP).dta
Party-level office probabilities.dta

Swedish local government data

Contain main estimates for 1740 governments and 15600 parties in 290 municipalities, pertaining to the month of May of each year, 1998–2018.

Incumbent government re-election probabilities (IRP).dta
Party-level office probabilities.dta

The EU LMP program dataset 1998–2013 (v. 18:07)

This is a dataset with yearly program-level observations of expenditures, participants, and program characteristics for several hundreds of labor market policy programs across Europe. The dataset, which is based on the European Commission’s labor market policy database, was prepared for my dissertation project. It was first used in Cronert (2017) in Socio-Economic Review and later in Cronert (2019) in Journal of Social Policy.


Variable description:

Example of how to use the dataset (Table 2 in Cronert, 2017):
Cronert_2017_SER_data.dta (required country-year variables)

Files needed to re-construct the dataset: